![]() ![]() possibly all three )īut a recession is likely coming soon, which means many investors are nervous about buying any stocks, even those offering mouth-watering and potentially life-changing yields. If someone tells you the financial system is imploding, they are either ignorant of the facts, a doomsday prophet, or Robert Kiyosaki. Louis, 1973 for Chicago).īoth are still showing below-average financial stress in the economy, much less the 1 average during recessions. Louis and Chicago Fed runs two financial stress indexes that track over 130 weekly metrics ranging from yield curves to credit spreads to loan default rates on every kind of loan.Ġ = average since inception (1993 for St. The Great Recession? It was 3X as severe and lasted twice as long as the average recession.Īnd there is no evidence of any kind of financial crisis brewing right now. The good news is that the 0.5% contraction currently expected by the FactSet consensus would be the 2nd mildest recession in history behind 2001's 0.4% decline.Įven WFC's 1.2% decline is slightly below the average since WWII (1.4%). Wells Fargo estimates 1.2% contraction begins in Q4 and lasts through Q1. ![]()
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